Predicted Order of Finish with Tiers by Color

  1. Villanova
  2. Pittsburgh
  3. Syracuse
  4. Seton Hall
  5. Georgetown
  6. Marquette
  7. West Virginia
  8. St. John’s
  9. Connecticut
  10. Notre Dame
  11. Louisville
  12. Cincinnati
  13. South Florida
  14. Providence
  15. DePaul
  16. Rutgers

In the last three seasons combined, the Big East has placed 23 teams in the NCAA tournament. Perhaps even more impressively, in the last two seasons, the Big East has had ten teams in the tournament as a three-seed or better. However, with just one of the top ten scorers and just three of the top ten rebounders returning this season, it looks like this season will be slightly down year for the conference. Not that there aren’t very good teams in the league, as the first tier of schools (Villanova, Pittsburgh and Syracuse) are all contenders for preseason national top ten consideration.


In the next tier, there are several teams with big question marks, with Seton Hall’s questions over adjustments to a new head coach and the health of Herb Pope the two most obvious. Georgetown, Marquette and West Virginia each lose key contributors to their recent success, but all three teams have intriguing talent, both the proven variety and the kind still labeled as potential, waiting in the wings. For the four teams in this tier, NCAA Tournament bids are expected, but they’ll need positive answers to their questions.

One tier down, however, there are teams who seem more likely to compete for those three new additional entries into the NCAA Tournament with other bubble teams. St. John’s looks to be at the top of this tier, partly due to their heavily senior-laden roster. Also in this tier are three marquee Big East teams (Connecticut, Louisville and Notre Dame) with more questions than answers on their rosters. Major contributors are gone, and what remains are largely inconsistent performers. If some of that inconsistency disappears with experience for players like Kemba Walker, Terrence Jennings and Scott Martin, these teams could move up into the tier of teams that doesn’t have to sweat out selection Sunday.

The fourth tier of teams is a little mini-tier of a couple of teams that I couldn’t rightly consider as bubble contenders, but also teams I didn’t want to put down with the basement of the league. For South Florida and Cincinnati to compete for NCAA Tournament bids, they’ll need not only veteran players like Gus Gilchrist and Yancy Gates to turn into highly efficient players, but also newcomers to provide heavy assistance right out of the gates.

And at the bottom, there are three teams in varying degrees of disarray. Providence and third-year head coach Keno Davis have endured a horrific offseason, while things haven’t been a whole lot better at DePaul and Rutgers. For DePaul and Rutgers, they at least have new coaches to bring hope of a brand new and more successful direction for the program. At Providence, Davis is almost back to square one. The one thing all these programs have in common is that it would take a near miracle for any of these teams to compete for a postseason bid of any kind, let alone an NCAA Tournament bid.

All-Big East First Team
G Austin Freeman, Sr, Georgetown
G Kemba Walker, Jr, Connecticut
F Kevin Jones, Jr, West Virginia
F Herb Pope, Jr, Seton Hall
F Kris Joseph, Jr, Syracuse

All-Big East Second Team
G Corey Fisher, Sr, Villanova
G Jeremy Hazell, Sr, Seton Hall
G Ashton Gibbs, Jr, Pittsburgh
F D.J. Kennedy, Sr, St. John’s
F Tim Abromaitis, Sr, Notre Dame

All-Freshman Team
G Vander Blue, Marquette
G Gerard Coleman, Providence
F Jayvaughn Pinkston, Villanova
F Roscoe Smith, Connecticut
C Fab Melo, Syracuse


 


Comments

Zach

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 7:31:33 pm

Seton Hall at #4? They're intriguing with Hazell, Pope, Robinson and Theodore but that's quite a leap. New coach, new system, Pope has health concerns and who knows if they'll defend. Georgetown's stellar backcourt should be enough to vault them 4th, IMO. Good work overall Andrew.

 

jimmy

Fri, 23 Jul 2010 7:25:15 pm

Switch Fisher and Walker

 

Andrew

Sat, 24 Jul 2010 12:01:27 am

Jimmy-- I'm just not in love with Fisher. I think he's a very good, solid player, but I think 'Nova has so many possible weapons that Fisher's numbers may be a little down. Meanwhile, I think UConn's roster is a little barren, and if Walker can improve at all on what he did last year, he could be the best player in the conference.

Zach-- Heh, yeah, I'll admit it may be a bit of a stretch, and I'm certainly assuming that Pope will be 100% (and I've actually heard positive things from a couple different sources). But, I think the talent is down in the conference (outside of the top three teams at least), and I'm a sucker for picking an underdog to overachieve.

 

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